Main
Heavyweight
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergei Pavlovich
Curtis Blaydes
72%
28%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
22-3
Career record
Δ 11 pp
20-6
W5
Current streak
W3
6
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Pavlovich: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Blaydes: 14 sig / 0 TD
Sergei Pavlovich
Curtis Blaydes
24
Sig strikes landed
20
51
Sig strikes attempted
50
38
Total strikes landed
37
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
63s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
70%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Sergei Pavlovich
22-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
84"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. H…
—
W
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
Blue corner
W3
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—