Back to UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
Prelims1 Bantamweight

Aaron Phillips vs Gaston Bolanos

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen ·T-Mobile Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Aaron Phillips
Gaston Bolanos
62% 38%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
L3
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Phillips: 17 sig / 3 TD · Bolanos: 63 sig / 0 TD
Aaron Phillips
Gaston Bolanos
27
Sig strikes landed
27
53
Sig strikes attempted
42
43
Total strikes landed
39
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
118s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
29%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Aaron Phillips

"The Dragon"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
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L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
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L UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
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Blue corner

Gaston Bolanos

"The Dreamkiller"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31