Main
Featherweight
Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen
·T-Mobile Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Max Holloway
Arnold Allen
58%
42%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
27-10
Career record
Δ 12 pp
22-4
L1
Current streak
W8
26
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holloway: 147 sig / 0 TD ·
Allen: 76 sig / 0 TD
Max Holloway
Arnold Allen
119
Sig strikes landed
93
216
Sig strikes attempted
188
127
Total strikes landed
104
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
62s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
73%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
26 fights · 19-7
Last 5
L
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W8
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
10 fights · 10-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—