Prelims2
Catch Weight
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Trey Ogden
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
·Kaseya Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ignacio Bahamondes
Trey Ogden
74%
26%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
26
Age
Δ 8y
33
18-7
Career record
Δ 1 pp
19-7
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bahamondes: 99 sig / 0 TD ·
Ogden: 42 sig / 0 TD
Ignacio Bahamondes
Trey Ogden
109
Sig strikes landed
76
210
Sig strikes attempted
157
120
Total strikes landed
87
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
103s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
85%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ignacio Bahamondes
"La Jaula"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
W1
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
19-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—