Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatsuro Taira
Jesus Aguilar
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 8"
62"
23
Age
Δ 4y
27
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Taira: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Aguilar: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuro Taira
Jesus Aguilar
42
Sig strikes landed
22
86
Sig strikes attempted
52
66
Total strikes landed
32
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
304s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tatsuro Taira
"The Best"
19-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Ara…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
Jesus Aguilar
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27