Back to UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Main Bantamweight

Marlon Vera vs Cory Sandhagen

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen ·Frost Bank Center
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Cory Sandhagen
61% 39%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
30
Age
Δ 1y
31
24-12-1
Career record
Δ 11 pp
19-6
W4
Current streak
W1
20
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Vera: 58 sig / 0 TD · Sandhagen: 128 sig / 3 TD
Marlon Vera
Cory Sandhagen
77
Sig strikes landed
87
149
Sig strikes attempted
179
89
Total strikes landed
106
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
77s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Marlon Vera

"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database 20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
Blue corner
W1

Cory Sandhagen

19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Vo…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—