Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Ariane da Silva vs JJ Aldrich
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili
·The Theater at Virgin Hotels Las Vegas
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ariane da Silva
JJ Aldrich
52%
48%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
17-12
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
da Silva: 101 sig / 2 TD ·
Aldrich: 49 sig / 0 TD
Ariane da Silva
JJ Aldrich
49
Sig strikes landed
51
120
Sig strikes attempted
101
81
Total strikes landed
78
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
150s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ariane da Silva
"Queen of Violence"
17-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
JJ Aldrich
15-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—