Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Joe Solecki
Carl Deaton
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Solecki: 2 sig / 2 TD ·
Deaton: 1 sig / 0 TD
Joe Solecki
Carl Deaton
32
Sig strikes landed
29
58
Sig strikes attempted
61
57
Total strikes landed
47
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
277s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joe Solecki
14-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
Carl Deaton
"The Anishinaabe Kid"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33