Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafael Alves
Nurullo Aliev
32%
68%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
32
Age
Δ 10y
22
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Alves: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Aliev: 19 sig / 3 TD
Rafael Alves
Nurullo Aliev
31
Sig strikes landed
40
59
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
64
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
112s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rafael Alves
"The Turn"
20-13
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
Blue corner
Nurullo Aliev
"Tajik Eagle"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22