Back to UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield
Prelims1 Flyweight

Clayton Carpenter vs Juancamilo Ronderos

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield ·Meta Apex
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Clayton Carpenter
Juancamilo Ronderos
65% 35%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
64"
27
Age
Δ 1y
28
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Carpenter: 3 sig / 0 TD · Ronderos: 1 sig / 1 TD
Clayton Carpenter
Juancamilo Ronderos
41
Sig strikes landed
26
69
Sig strikes attempted
61
57
Total strikes landed
40
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Clayton Carpenter

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L1

Juancamilo Ronderos

"100"
4-3
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
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