Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Zubaira Tukhugov
Elves Brener
52%
48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
W1
Current streak
—
8
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Tukhugov: 70 sig / 0 TD ·
Brener: 69 sig / 0 TD
Zubaira Tukhugov
Elves Brener
40
Sig strikes landed
41
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
53
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Zubaira Tukhugov
"Warrior"
21-6-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
D
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
Blue corner
Elves Brener
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25