🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Islam Makhachev vs Alexander Volkanovski
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
·RAC Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Islam Makhachev
Alexander Volkanovski
67%
33%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
31
Age
Δ 3y
34
29-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
29-4
W8
Current streak
W8
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Makhachev: 57 sig / 4 TD ·
Volkanovski: 70 sig / 0 TD
Islam Makhachev
Alexander Volkanovski
49
Sig strikes landed
44
85
Sig strikes attempted
92
66
Total strikes landed
106
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.9
6.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
250s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 12-1
Last 5
W
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W8
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 12-0
Last 5
W
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
—
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—