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Main Welterweight

Stephen Thompson vs Kevin Holland

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland ·Amway Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Kevin Holland
28% 72%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 6"
81"
40
Age
Δ 10y
30
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 4 pp
29-16
L2
Current streak
L1
18
UFC fights in our DB
16

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Thompson: 163 sig / 0 TD · Holland: 119 sig / 2 TD
Stephen Thompson
Kevin Holland
72
Sig strikes landed
80
125
Sig strikes attempted
151
74
Total strikes landed
79
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
93s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Stephen Thompson

"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 18 fights · 11-6
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
L1

Kevin Holland

"Trailblazer"
29-16 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 16 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson
—
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emm…
—
W UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—