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Main Heavyweight

Chase Sherman vs Waldo Cortes Acosta

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Chase Sherman
Waldo Cortes Acosta
33% 67%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
17-12
Career record
Δ 27 pp
18-3
W1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sherman: 66 sig / 1 TD · Cortes Acosta: 147 sig / 0 TD
Chase Sherman
Waldo Cortes Acosta
65
Sig strikes landed
85
145
Sig strikes attempted
174
72
Total strikes landed
90
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
36s
Control time
74s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
4%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Chase Sherman

"The Vanilla Gorilla"
17-12
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 13 fights · 4-9
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
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L UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
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L UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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Blue corner
W1

Waldo Cortes Acosta

"Salsa Boy"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. All…
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