Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rinya Nakamura
Shohei Nose
67%
33%
Why
68"
Reach
68"
28
Age
Δ 3y
25
11-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
13-5-2
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nakamura: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Nose: 16 sig / 0 TD
Rinya Nakamura
Shohei Nose
16
Sig strikes landed
12
30
Sig strikes attempted
28
23
Total strikes landed
21
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
166s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
53%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rinya Nakamura
"Hybred"
11-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.3
—
Blue corner
W1
Shohei Nose
13-5-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.4
—