Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
JeongYeong Lee
Lu Kai
68%
32%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
12-3
Career record
Δ 16 pp
9-5
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lee: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Kai: 4 sig / 0 TD
JeongYeong Lee
Lu Kai
25
Sig strikes landed
18
49
Sig strikes attempted
42
35
Total strikes landed
31
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
56%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
JeongYeong Lee
"Korean Tiger"
12-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.3
—
Blue corner
W1
Lu Kai
"The Last Gladiator"
9-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.4
—