Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yizha
Koyomi Matsushima
85%
15%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
66"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
27-6
Career record
Δ 12 pp
14-6
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Yizha: 32 sig / 6 TD ·
Matsushima: 32 sig / 6 TD
Yizha
Koyomi Matsushima
25
Sig strikes landed
16
58
Sig strikes attempted
51
40
Total strikes landed
29
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.5
4.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
269s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yizha
27-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.1
—
Blue corner
W1
Koyomi Matsushima
14-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Road to UFC 1.2
—