Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Carlos Candelario
Jake Hadley
47%
53%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
8-4
Career record
Δ 2 pp
11-5
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Candelario: 69 sig / 1 TD ·
Hadley: 90 sig / 0 TD
Carlos Candelario
Jake Hadley
27
Sig strikes landed
32
76
Sig strikes attempted
79
54
Total strikes landed
63
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
245s
Control time
281s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carlos Candelario
"The Cannon"
8-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jake Hadley
"White Kong"
11-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—