Prelims1
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista vs Benito Lopez
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mario Bautista
Benito Lopez
73%
27%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
29
Age
Δ 1y
29
18-3
Career record
Δ 1 pp
11-2
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bautista: 44 sig / 1 TD ·
Lopez: 17 sig / 0 TD
Mario Bautista
Benito Lopez
46
Sig strikes landed
41
103
Sig strikes attempted
101
63
Total strikes landed
51
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
203s
Control time
31s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mario Bautista
18-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Benito Lopez
"Golden Boy"
11-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—