Prelims1
Welterweight
Jake Matthews vs Matthew Semelsberger
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Matthew Semelsberger
81%
19%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
24-8
Career record
Δ 20 pp
11-9
W1
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Semelsberger: 45 sig / 3 TD
Jake Matthews
Matthew Semelsberger
50
Sig strikes landed
39
109
Sig strikes attempted
102
67
Total strikes landed
44
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.4
Takedowns attempted
0.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
215s
Control time
23s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
L1
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—