Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Guido Cannetti
Randy Costa
34%
66%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 5"
73"
43
Age
Δ 15y
28
11-8
Career record
Δ 3 pp
6-5
W1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cannetti: 8 sig / 1 TD ·
Costa: 2 sig / 0 TD
Guido Cannetti
Randy Costa
30
Sig strikes landed
31
51
Sig strikes attempted
71
48
Total strikes landed
38
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
151s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Guido Cannetti
"Ninja"
11-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
Blue corner
L2
Randy Costa
"The Zohan"
6-5
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—