Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Collier
Chris Barnett
38%
62%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
34
Age
Δ 2y
36
13-11
Career record
Δ 13 pp
23-11
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Collier: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Barnett: 54 sig / 0 TD
Jake Collier
Chris Barnett
50
Sig strikes landed
43
118
Sig strikes attempted
96
62
Total strikes landed
55
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
65s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Barnett
"Beastboy"
23-11
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—