Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Daniel Marcos
Brandon Lewis
78%
22%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
25
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marcos: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Lewis: 45 sig / 2 TD
Daniel Marcos
Brandon Lewis
45
Sig strikes landed
23
76
Sig strikes attempted
56
66
Total strikes landed
32
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
189s
Control time
60s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Daniel Marcos
"Soncora"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L1
Brandon Lewis
6-3
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 5.3
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