Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nayara Maia
Tereza Bleda
41%
59%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
32
Age
Δ 11y
21
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Maia: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
Bleda: 50 sig / 1 TD
Nayara Maia
Tereza Bleda
35
Sig strikes landed
37
73
Sig strikes attempted
91
69
Total strikes landed
65
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
203s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Nayara Maia
"Capita"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Tereza Bleda
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
21