Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jason Witt
Josh Quinlan
63%
37%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Witt: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Quinlan: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jason Witt
Josh Quinlan
31
Sig strikes landed
28
57
Sig strikes attempted
57
48
Total strikes landed
45
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.2
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
243s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jason Witt
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
19-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
Josh Quinlan
"Bushido"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30