Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bo Nickal
Zachary Borrego
72%
28%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Nickal: 2 sig / 2 TD ·
Borrego: 0 sig / 0 TD
Bo Nickal
Zachary Borrego
31
Sig strikes landed
32
66
Sig strikes attempted
69
47
Total strikes landed
38
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
129s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Bo Nickal
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
Blue corner
Zachary Borrego
"The Dragon"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
26