Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Shimon Smotritsky
Billy Ray Goff
63%
37%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
22
Age
Δ 2y
24
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smotritsky: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Goff: 36 sig / 2 TD
Shimon Smotritsky
Billy Ray Goff
41
Sig strikes landed
39
109
Sig strikes attempted
75
55
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
64s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Shimon Smotritsky
"The Assassin"
8-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DWCS 5.6
—
Blue corner
Billy Ray Goff
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
24