Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alessandro Costa
Juan Andres Luna
54%
46%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Costa: 45 sig / 0 TD ·
Luna: 49 sig / 0 TD
Alessandro Costa
Juan Andres Luna
33
Sig strikes landed
39
67
Sig strikes attempted
79
47
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Alessandro Costa
"Nono"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Juan Andres Luna
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27