Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Schnell
Sumudaerji
33%
67%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 6y
26
17-11
Career record
Δ 13 pp
20-7
L1
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Schnell: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Sumudaerji: 58 sig / 0 TD
Matt Schnell
Sumudaerji
33
Sig strikes landed
42
85
Sig strikes attempted
94
38
Total strikes landed
53
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
89s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
Blue corner
W3
Sumudaerji
"The Tibetan Eagle"
20-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—