Prelims2
Welterweight
Michael Morales vs Adam Fugitt
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
·American Airlines Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Morales
Adam Fugitt
91%
9%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 2"
77"
23
Age
Δ 10y
34
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Morales: 83 sig / 0 TD ·
Fugitt: 64 sig / 1 TD
Michael Morales
Adam Fugitt
37
Sig strikes landed
15
80
Sig strikes attempted
33
59
Total strikes landed
16
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.60
Knockdowns
0.00
173s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Morales
20-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
Blue corner
Adam Fugitt
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34