Back to UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2
Prelims2 Welterweight

Orion Cosce vs Blood Diamond

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 ·American Airlines Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Orion Cosce
Blood Diamond
82% 18%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
76"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
8-3
Career record
Δ 30 pp
3-4
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cosce: 25 sig / 3 TD · Diamond: 63 sig / 0 TD
Orion Cosce
Blood Diamond
33
Sig strikes landed
33
59
Sig strikes attempted
52
80
Total strikes landed
82
2.7
Takedowns landed
1.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
366s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Orion Cosce

"Galaxy"
8-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
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Blue corner
L1

Blood Diamond

3-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
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