Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
John Adajar
HanSeul Kim
54%
46%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Adajar: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Kim: 29 sig / 0 TD
John Adajar
HanSeul Kim
31
Sig strikes landed
38
65
Sig strikes attempted
79
45
Total strikes landed
55
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
John Adajar
"The Outlaw"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
HanSeul Kim
"Spade"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32