Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
JunYoung Hong
Koyomi Matsushima
52%
48%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Hong: 53 sig / 0 TD ·
Matsushima: 49 sig / 12 TD
JunYoung Hong
Koyomi Matsushima
37
Sig strikes landed
37
80
Sig strikes attempted
76
50
Total strikes landed
50
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
JunYoung Hong
"Drunken Red"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Koyomi Matsushima
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30