🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Israel Adesanya
Jared Cannonier
86%
14%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
33
Age
Δ 5y
38
25-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-9
W2
Current streak
W2
12
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Adesanya: 116 sig / 0 TD ·
Cannonier: 90 sig / 0 TD
Israel Adesanya
Jared Cannonier
86
Sig strikes landed
61
170
Sig strikes attempted
125
99
Total strikes landed
75
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
70s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 11-1
Last 5
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
Blue corner
W2
Jared Cannonier
"The Killa Gorilla"
19-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database
13 fights · 8-5
Last 5
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. …
—
L
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—