Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Curtis Blaydes
Tom Aspinall
60%
40%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 2y
29
20-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-3
W2
Current streak
W5
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Blaydes: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Aspinall: 3 sig / 0 TD
Curtis Blaydes
Tom Aspinall
23
Sig strikes landed
22
44
Sig strikes attempted
39
43
Total strikes landed
33
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
169s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 11-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Da…
—
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W5
Tom Aspinall
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—