Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Phil Hawes
Deron Winn
63%
37%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 8"
70"
33
Age
Δ 0y
33
12-7
Career record
Δ 10 pp
8-3
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Hawes: 118 sig / 1 TD ·
Winn: 32 sig / 0 TD
Phil Hawes
Deron Winn
63
Sig strikes landed
34
104
Sig strikes attempted
73
80
Total strikes landed
47
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.0
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
173s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Phil Hawes
"No Hype"
12-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W1
Deron Winn
8-3
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—