Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Antonina Shevchenko vs Cortney Casey
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonina Shevchenko
Cortney Casey
68%
32%
Why
67"
Reach
67"
38
Age
Δ 2y
35
10-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
11-10
L2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Shevchenko: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Casey: 33 sig / 2 TD
Antonina Shevchenko
Cortney Casey
52
Sig strikes landed
53
107
Sig strikes attempted
110
82
Total strikes landed
68
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
175s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Antonina Shevchenko
"La Pantera"
10-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
L
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Cortney Casey
"Cast Iron"
11-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 6-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—