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Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Erin Blanchfield vs JJ Aldrich

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Erin Blanchfield
JJ Aldrich
82% 18%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
15-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
16-7
W2
Current streak
W3
2
UFC fights in our DB
10

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Blanchfield: 48 sig / 0 TD · Aldrich: 32 sig / 2 TD
Erin Blanchfield
JJ Aldrich
55
Sig strikes landed
46
110
Sig strikes attempted
93
80
Total strikes landed
75
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
194s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
47%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Erin Blanchfield

"Cold Blooded"
15-2
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
W UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
Blue corner
W3

JJ Aldrich

16-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
W UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
W UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
L UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
W UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…