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Prelims1 Flyweight

Tatsuro Taira vs Carlos Candelario

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Tatsuro Taira
Carlos Candelario
87% 13%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
22
Age
Δ 9y
31

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Taira: 57 sig / 1 TD · Candelario: 9 sig / 2 TD
Tatsuro Taira
Carlos Candelario
41
Sig strikes landed
32
83
Sig strikes attempted
64
62
Total strikes landed
45
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Tatsuro Taira

"The Best"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner

Carlos Candelario

"The Cannon"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31