Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Elise Reed
Sam Hughes
51%
49%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
9-5
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-7
W1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Reed: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Hughes: 43 sig / 4 TD
Elise Reed
Sam Hughes
46
Sig strikes landed
46
100
Sig strikes attempted
104
70
Total strikes landed
70
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.9
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
95s
Control time
245s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Elise Reed
9-5
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
Blue corner
W1
Sam Hughes
"Sampage"
12-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—