Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chase Hooper
Felipe Colares
79%
21%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Hooper: 60 sig / 4 TD ·
Colares: 21 sig / 2 TD
Chase Hooper
Felipe Colares
47
Sig strikes landed
37
101
Sig strikes attempted
75
70
Total strikes landed
53
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
214s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
16-6-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
L
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
L1
Felipe Colares
"Cabocao"
10-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—