Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Holly Holm
Ketlen Vieira
36%
64%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
41
Age
Δ 10y
31
16-7
Career record
Δ 8 pp
17-5
W2
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Holm: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Vieira: 85 sig / 1 TD
Holly Holm
Ketlen Vieira
58
Sig strikes landed
60
120
Sig strikes attempted
132
88
Total strikes landed
92
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
189s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
76%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
41
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana
—
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
W1
Ketlen Vieira
"Fenomeno"
17-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—