Back to UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
Main Welterweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Michel Pereira

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Michel Pereira
56% 44%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
36
Age
Δ 7y
29
31-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
33-14
L1
Current streak
W4
14
UFC fights in our DB
7

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ponzinibbio: 105 sig / 1 TD · Pereira: 110 sig / 0 TD
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Michel Pereira
61
Sig strikes landed
69
141
Sig strikes attempted
154
68
Total strikes landed
79
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.3
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
83s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
6%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Santiago Ponzinibbio

"Argentine Dagger"
31-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
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W UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
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L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
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W UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
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W UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
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Blue corner
W4

Michel Pereira

"Demolidor"
33-14 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—