Prelims2
Bantamweight
Journey Newson vs Fernie Garcia
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Journey Newson
Fernie Garcia
51%
49%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
67"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
L2
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Newson: 57 sig / 2 TD ·
Garcia: 37 sig / 0 TD
Journey Newson
Fernie Garcia
27
Sig strikes landed
40
69
Sig strikes attempted
75
44
Total strikes landed
58
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
118s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Journey Newson
10-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
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Blue corner
Fernie Garcia
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30