Prelims2
Women's Flyweight
Tracy Cortez vs Melissa Gatto
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
·Footprint Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tracy Cortez
Melissa Gatto
59%
41%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
13-3
Career record
Δ 15 pp
10-3-2
W3
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cortez: 36 sig / 2 TD ·
Gatto: 30 sig / 3 TD
Tracy Cortez
Melissa Gatto
43
Sig strikes landed
37
89
Sig strikes attempted
94
60
Total strikes landed
68
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
255s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Tracy Cortez
13-3
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Melissa Gatto
10-3-2
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—