Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Natan Levy
Mike Breeden
67%
33%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
8-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
11-7
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Levy: 92 sig / 9 TD ·
Breeden: 104 sig / 3 TD
Natan Levy
Mike Breeden
39
Sig strikes landed
37
90
Sig strikes attempted
84
55
Total strikes landed
44
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
151s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Natan Levy
"Lethal"
8-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
Blue corner
L1
Mike Breeden
"Money"
11-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—