Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Jake Collier
57%
43%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
43
Age
Δ 10y
34
35-24
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-10
W3
Current streak
W1
23
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Arlovski: 91 sig / 0 TD ·
Collier: 93 sig / 2 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Jake Collier
63
Sig strikes landed
61
123
Sig strikes attempted
139
69
Total strikes landed
74
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
23 fights · 12-10
Last 5
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
14-10
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—