Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Rob Font
Marlon Vera
52%
48%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
35
Age
Δ 5y
29
22-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-12-1
L1
Current streak
W2
13
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Font: 271 sig / 1 TD ·
Vera: 159 sig / 0 TD
Rob Font
Marlon Vera
104
Sig strikes landed
76
188
Sig strikes attempted
156
96
Total strikes landed
77
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
79s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rob Font
22-11
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
Blue corner
W2
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—