Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rafa Garcia
Jesse Ronson
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
28
Age
Δ 9y
36
20-4
Career record
Δ 20 pp
21-12
W1
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Garcia: 35 sig / 3 TD ·
Ronson: 25 sig / 0 TD
Rafa Garcia
Jesse Ronson
53
Sig strikes landed
52
124
Sig strikes attempted
122
88
Total strikes landed
62
2.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.8
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
275s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Rafa Garcia
"Gifted"
20-4
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Stric…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
Blue corner
L3
Jesse Ronson
"The Body Snatcher"
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mou…
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—