Back to UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall
Prelims1 Flyweight

Muhammad Mokaev vs Cody Durden

UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall ·The O2 Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Muhammad Mokaev
Cody Durden
81% 19%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
22
Age
Δ 9y
31
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Mokaev: 2 sig / 0 TD · Durden: 1 sig / 1 TD
Muhammad Mokaev
Cody Durden
40
Sig strikes landed
38
91
Sig strikes attempted
76
83
Total strikes landed
57
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
4.4
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Muhammad Mokaev

"The Punisher"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
Blue corner
W1

Cody Durden

"Custom Made"
19-10-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
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